Bryan J. Simmons | Connor T. Jerzak
Abstract: Ultras groups represent a vibrant yet contentious aspect of global football culture, often intertwining with identity politics, discrimination, and societal divisions. In this paper, we introduce a novel large-scale dataset encompassing ultras groups across 40 countries, compiled from diverse sources including Wikipedia, fan directories, news sources, and academic literature. With this data source, we examine temporal trends in group creation, revealing surges during periods of political transition and economic upheaval, such as democratization waves in Europe and Latin America, before turning to an analysis of perceived group ideology, correlating these patterns with broader factors such as GDP growth, World Cup victories, and national identity. We gain leverage on causal questions by exploiting natural experiments using close match outcomes—narrow wins versus narrow losses—to isolate the effect of team success on ultras mobilization and behavior. Our analysis culminates in two in-depth case studies: Spain, where ultras intersect with regional separatism and post-Franco democratization, and Argentina, where groups reflect Peronist legacies and socioeconomic rivalries. Through these, we test theories of fan mobilization as a response to identity politics and institutional change. Overall, this study sheds light on the dual role of ultras as both amplifiers of societal tensions and potential agents of unity, offering a valuable new dataset for scholars and policymakers addressing identity, conflict, and politics in sports.
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